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Tuesday 1 March 2011

Riding the Aussie Wave

Bad Assed Trader:  This morning I blog from France.  Although technically speaking I'm on holiday, I was up at 6am French time (5am English time) all the same, to get on with the trading.  I didn't set the alarm, my brain just woke me up then - still excited about trading I suppose.

I'm not sure why I'm so alert when I was up until gone midnight last night playing cards (Canasta) with friends after sharing a fabulous duck dinner with plenty of red wine - much of which was Spanish although we concede that there is much good red wine from down the road in this part of France (south west).

So here I am at my trading desk in France - sounds exotic - and currently attempting to ride an Aussie wave.  Although at present I confess it's more of a ripple.

I've been working hard to maintain the relaxed mindset which seemed to do me well last week and have a new mantra to run through every morning which includes "It does not matter one jot if I do not place a trade today". I followed this mantra assiduously yesterday and was proud with myself for not actually placing a trade as my perfect set up did not occur.  This was the right thing to do and will hopefully help to reinforce the attitude that staying out is a positive position to take.

Also included on my mantra is that I would rather place 5 trades a week and win 4 than place 10 and lose 6.  I think this sums up neatly the reason one has to really be very fussy when trading (something it's taken me some time to finesse) and if in doubt, stay out.

This morning the only set up that occurred for me has been on the Aussie dollar (AUD USD).  It's one of my "sniper" trades but also a pivot which I hope makes it more potent.  I took the trade using the 5 minute chart as price crossed the pivot point on its way back up following a retracement to the 50 moving average on the hourly chart.  Essentially this means that the price is generally going up (on the daily and four hourly charts this looks to be the case) but has had what I hope will be a temporary dip as  is normal with price as it bounces off moving average lines.

The pivot point is a line that the charting software calculates and sits at the same value all day (unlike the moving averages which, er, move) and it is said that this point acts as a magnet to price action, drawing it in and then repelling it.

So far it has drawn the Aussie dollar price to it from below but I'm still waiting for the repelling bit upwards.  It really should have repelled it by now as I took the trade about half an hour ago but unfortunately is just sitting there on top of it and the 50 moving average, just bobbling along (I don't think that's a term many traders use but you get the drift I'm sure).

Some traders kill their trade if price hasn't done what they expect after four bars (in this case four 5 minute bars) but I'm not one of them.  I set my stop loss and my target and let the trade move whichever way in its own time.  Life is exciting enough when you're trading on 5 minute charts when your average trade is over with in about an hour without having to add another decision about price action when you're actually in the trade.  Once you're in it is more difficult to stay objective and your personality (optimistic, pessimistic...) starts influencing your actions more.

Well I'll post the blog and let you know next time whether the fuffling (another term I don't find many other traders using) converted to decisive momentum movement (terms other traders do very much like to use) or whether the usually strong, macho Aussie flumped out on me.

By the way, Faceless Bureaucrat has asked me to share with you that she thinks good news is in the offing on the job front and a 6 month secondment might be setting itself up a little more effectively than this Aussie dollar is.  More soon.....


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