Faceless Bureaucrat gives way to Bad Assed Trader

Bad Assed Trader:  Trading is a truly strange game.  It seems that just when you start to think “Oh my, this is a long, long game.  I’d better chill out, take my time, relaxxx…” the thing starts to take a turn for the better.

On Wednesday I was at a bit of a low.  It was a hangover from the weekend.  Not due to an alcoholic blitz.  Rather I had been assessing my performance in this new year and found it sadly wanting.

I had thought I was turning a corner.  I had twigged it was a big corner but had not appreciated just how big.  In reality I think I was just anticipating the corner rather than actually experiencing it.

A triumph of hope over evidence.  Much like Mr Lansley’s current plans for the NHS many would argue.

So what did I do when I found my performance so disappointing?

I did not give up.

I shrank the account size on which I trade threefold to reduce my risk (and therefore loss) right down to the bare minimum.  I’ve been trading just 30p a pip.

My priority has to be to preserve my capital.  I want to stay in this game long enough to make it.

As I’m only trading “snipers” at present involving 20 pip moves this means my maximum loss is £6.

Some traders resort to “paper trading” when their confidence hibernates.  That won’t work for me, I need to be able to handle the money and know my actions mean something.

Returning to Wednesday’s low then.  I was a bit pessimistic.  Most unlike me.  I was trying to gee myself up by remembering just how much I’ve learnt in recent months and how I knew absolutely nothing about this craft before I started.

But as I reflected on my actual progress in terms of outcome (ie making money) which is so slow as to be at standstill if not actually in reverse, I allowed myself to start believing that this will take time, that I don’t have to prove myself immediately.  And then I just resigned myself to that.

It seems my mind shifted into the right gear for trader mentality at that point.  That point where I gave up believing that today I would start to make big money.

When I sat down to scan for early morning trades it was different.  This time I had no expectations.  I was unhurried and felt quite detached from the scene.

I happened to spot a long (buy) trade on Swissy Yen (CHF JPY) and took it.  An hour and 10 minutes later it delivered my 1% (the princely sum of £6).

That was it for the day and I confess to feeling a little pleasure, still in a rather detached way, that I was actually “up” on the day…for a change.

Yesterday morning I approached my trading desk with a similar attitude.  If it comes then great, if not, so what.

I scanned and found little ready to go.  Then EUR GBP set itself up for a long trade (the Euro going up against the pound).  I took it, in a rather ambivalent fashion.  Again, one hour and 10 minutes on and the little chicken came home to roost.  Another six quid in the bag.

I thought I’d stop there as being “up” for two days in a row seemed a good achievement for me based on previous record and I felt it might be nice to see how it felt staying “up” so to speak.

However, I had been waiting for a Euro set up – to buy Euros against the dollar – and just as I was thinking I’d get on to (paid) work so a set-up occurred.

Strictly speaking I shouldn’t have taken it as it wasn’t a “sniper” but a “pivot” trade, meaning price was breaking up through a key technical level.  When this happens there’s a high probability of it reaching the next technical level.  In this case that next level was about 60 pips away.

I looked closely at all the time frames with this same rather odd sense of detachment and found the evidence definitely in my favour to go long (buy).

So in I went.

I was so detached that initially I didn’t bother to place my usual target order of 20 pips and went off to the loo.

When I returned the price was haring up and I’d already made one and a half percent.  You’d have thought I’d have jumped for joy.  But no.  Just a slightly raised eyebrow and a moment’s consideration as to whether I should take all the profit straight away (a bird in the hand being worth two in the bush etc) or take half and move my stop loss to breakeven (my previous tactic) or leave it to run to the next key technical level.

I was that detached that I decided to set a target just below the next key technical level whilst also moving my stop loss to break even so I was in a “free” trade – no risk and maybe I could get to my target as the momentum certainly seemed to be there.

Well, this time within 40 minutes of me placing the trade my target was hit.  A full 49 pips later, delivering me nearly 2.5%, a £14.70 addition to my bag, snuggling up against that 1% I’d netted on the EUR GBP trade.  I was nearly 3.5% up.

My best day trading ever.

And I knew I had to blog it.  Not to boast as really I have nothing to boast about – my record has been, frankly, crap.  This could just be a blip.  Or luck.  But I have to reflect on my different mindset and the contribution it made to my success.  I have to be able to replicate that mindset.  As they say in the trading game “Trading is 90% psychology and the rest is in your head”….

The End is Nigh

Faceless Bureaucrat:  As a well seasoned (and marinaded) NHS manager even I can spot when the writing is on the wall.  Yesterday I was reminded once more that our team is being disbanded and our work, within a matter of a few short weeks, will be no more.

Jen is one of our hardest working team members.  A dual nationality (Aussie/UK) marathon runner with boundless energy and drive she has, as project development manager, organised us to within inches of our lives.  She has great clarity of thought and judgement and a fabulous sense of humour to boot.  It was her last day in the NHS yesterday, on Monday she takes up an amazing new job with the music industry employer EMI where she will apparently form a human bridge between artists and the back room boys and girls.

Like our team administrator who left weeks ago to a job for which she negotiated a £15,000 pay rise, Jen is moving to bigger and better things in the private sector as a result of public sector cuts.  Maybe that's what the Government wants, maybe it's the right thing.  At the moment I confess to just seeing a huge amount of talent leaving the NHS, talent that we had at a really good price simply because we are public sector.  And I've barely started on the many and varied colleagues I am now watching taking voluntary redundancy packages often worth something nearing £100,000 who I have absolutely no doubt will slip into a new job, public or private within months if not weeks.  I gasp at the sheer volume of skill, commitment and experience we are presently haemorrhaging.

But today I wanted to share with you Jen's final words to the NHS.  The context on this is that we have been running commissioning skills workshops for London's NHS commissioners since last September.  We have done the whole lot in house so no extra expense, from designing the material, hosting delegates at our offices to delivering the training ourselves.  We launched two workshops initially and the places were fully booked within hours.  A waiting list rapidly formed so we went hell for leather to work our way through the queues of clinicians (yes, GPs and nurses) as well as managers keen to learn more about how to commission at a time when training budgets stand frozen.

Our five different workshops on each stage of the commissioning cycle gave people a good grounding in commissioning, taught them in detail about the steps to follow when planning new services, managing change, undertaking a procurement, improving performance and decommissioning services.

We worked brilliantly as a team of seven.  Five of us developed the material between us and our team leader helped us to finesse that material.  The same five, and the boss, all delivered in different couple combinations.  Our team administrator, since departed, did the front of house reception and facility organisation until Jen took it over after she left.

At the end of each workshop we didn't let anyone leave the room without completing an evaluation form which could be completely anonymous if the delegate preferred.  We asked for constructive criticism and suggestions to help us to improve.  Every week Jen did a "Workshop Wrap" - an email summary of the results of the evaluations and general performance for that week which initially led to some changes to the material and format but as we refined our product really served to update us on how we were doing.

We held our final workshop on Thursday and Jen, before leaving on Friday, sent us one final Workshop Wrap.  I have copied it here below as these are her last words to us as a team and as the NHS and as usual she delivers succinctly and with good humour:

Well team, here it is as promised (especially for you Kaj) – the final edition of Jen’s workshop wrap.

Drumroll please.

21 weeks ago Suz and Dave stepped up to deliver the first free commissioning skills workshop. Jade was on deck to meet and greet while I was sunning myself on Croatia’s coastline.

A lot can happen in 21 weeks. Sheffield United found millions of pounds, Middle Eastern governments have been ousted, countries have been flooded, miners have survived weeks underground. Heavens, the English have reclaimed the Ashes in Australia, and some god awful movie about a rake thin cliché ballet dancer has collected highly regarded awards. Good things must come to an end.

Be proud people - we’ve delivered to 624 delegates over 30 sessions and still have a waiting list of 625 places.

And yesterday afternoon Dave and Suz bookended the programme with a one off chart topping session on Performance Management and Decommissioning. Up on the sixth floor, with the sophisticated addition of video, our group were very comfortable helping themselves to the instant coffee and managing the unpredictable room temperatures. The familiar faces who keep coming back for Suzanne’s passionate stories that may make it hard to stick to an agenda, Dave’s quipps on policy churn, and some random guest star appearances from other members of the commissioning skills team…all rated it well.

Performance management and decommissioning:

A few summary points from yesterday:

·         Average knowledge Before 2.3 and After 3.8 – an increase of 1.5
·         A few comments (as usual) about wanting more time
·         LOTS of thanks to the team for this and all of the sessions, as well as genuine well wishing to everyone for their next steps and futures. We are loved.

Some people have requested we distribute the materials from all of the workshops – my response has been that we are still working through how intellectual property developed by the commissioning skills team will best be circulated to the system beyond our existence. i.e. I held the position of only providing hard copy handouts to delegates at this stage.

And the one we all love…

From ALL sessions 97.22% recommend the workshops to their colleagues

In the National Archives this small electronic folder, stripped of speaker notes and real wisdom, will sit dormant whilst consulting companies are paid small fortunes to redevelop material and hone their delivery…perhaps the ghost of things past will nag in the back of their minds.

‘Who were these commissioning skills people I keep hearing about?

…And where have they gone?’

Indeed.

From mental health nursing to the music industry, Arab newspapers, Harvard…what corners of the world of work won’t be touched by the members of this great team?

Muchos gracias from me for a fabulous ride. Good luck in the coming weeks/months and I do hope to hear from you all with news, gossip, double entendres and random bits of trivia. Yes Neil, I’ll miss your facts.

I’ll speak to you soon I’m sure, but as far as the commissioning workshops programme is concerned, it’s good night from me, and it’s good night from him.

Good night.

And ciao for now…

Jen

And until my next thrilling installment...over and out...FB

Bootcamping it up

Bad Assed Trader:  I blog from a "bootcamp" today.  Rising at 04:00 does, I think, prove my dedication to the cause of trading.  I've been here now since 06:30 with another 40 or so traders to trade together with two professionals, one of whom is my coach, Emmanuel.  He is doing a great double act with another professional, Isaac, and oh my word is the spirit of trading thriving in this room today.

We have already taken what we call a sniper trade short (selling) on the Euro (EUR USD) which plummeted from a peak of 1.3558 to its current price of 1.3468. That's a 90 pip drop in just over an hour.  Of course we can't catch all 90 pips as we have to wait for our set ups to trigger.  I entered at 1.3530 risking a pound a pip and, over 50 pips later, I'm still in the trade. I stuck to my rules so I'm pleased with myself.  So far I've moved my stop loss to 1% and cashed in half of that which means I'm up half a percent and have locked in another half but hopeful I can squeeze a bit more out as it seems to be moving decisively today.  I'm keeping my cool and watching price action for my exit signals.

We've also placed a few other orders for trades to kick in once our criteria are met, one of which - EUR GBP (Euro pound) has already triggered for a short (selling) trade. Right now, the pound is looking stronger than the Euro.  I'm not an economist so I won't offer an opinion as to why, I just interpret the charts and am happily being guided by these two young chaps who really seem to know what they're doing.

I also had a session last week with a "Life Success Coach" - my fourth coach this year! This one is different to the other three - she's a girl (Jules).  I only had the one session but she was very helpful.  We focused on how to optimise my learning style to improve my trading performance.  This means recognising that I'm a "creative visual" learner - someone who remembers things through visual information but I have to create the visual images in my head rather than recall them (which is more like photographic memory).

Jules' advice was that I create images that work for me in terms of my trading journal and the key things I want to learn.  It's all about training your mind in a relatively mechanistic, repetitive way, using the techniques that your mind is most receptive to.  It may sound like airy fairy woolly nonsense but hey, I'll  try anything.  In fact I already have - my trading desk at home is now surrounded by notice boards on which I've pinned charts of exemplary trades I have taken (to reinforce my successes as well as what good trades look like).

I'm ashamed to say I could only find two.  When I looked back over my winning trades most of them really seemed down to luck rather than good judgement.  The silver lining to that cloud is that I've clearly learnt a lot since then...

To make up for the gaps on my noticeboards where the missing exemplary trades should be I have put copies of the training material supplied by the company training me, stuff which tells me how to counteract negative thinking, how to deal with the emotional side of trading and get it under control and other similarly wise advice which I am committed to follow.

Let's see how much impact that makes over the next day or two.  I'll let you know...warts and all...

Riding the Forex wave

Bad Assed Trader:  Increasingly I see the movement of the currency pairs I trade as like waves on the sea.  You can't make a wave happen.  If you think a ripple is a wave and stick your surfboard on it all you'll get is a mouthful of salt water.  If you see a huge wave towering over you it's probably too late to attempt to surf it - you've missed the wave so sit it out.  Otherwise you will just get crushed under the wave, it's too high for you to ride it now.

The same thing happens with trades.  So many times now I've looked back on my trades and thought yup, that was only a ripple, it was going nowhere, I tried to "make" that trade.  They need momentum, I'm still learning to spot the signs that momentum is building but I think I am gradually improving on that front.

Thankfully I don't make the tidal wave mistake so much - it's a common mistake for amateurs seeing the big moves to jump in too late, I pretty consistently have conquered that one.

So how am I doing with the 30 perfect trades? Well I got to number 20 on my fifth attempt and reviewed those with my coach.  The ripple problem was my biggest issue and so I'm looking now for more definitive signs of movement.  I'm also not trading the "Swissy" (Swiss franc: USD CHF) anymore as I lost 4 out of 4 of those trades - that currency pair just doesn't resonate for me.

Since then I've taken 6 trades, 3 on the Euro (EUR USD) and 3 on Euro yen (EUR JPY). The Euro ones all went my way and hit my target, so did one of the Euro yens.  The other two didn't - one because news on lower than expected Swiss retail sales affected the Euro negatively and the other because I didn't strictly follow my rules and entered before I should have.

So I'm now on my sixth attempt to do 30 perfect trades, starting tomorrow.  When I say perfect trades, I have to spot and manage them perfectly.  Some of them will not bring home the bacon but that's ok, it's the price you pay for trading, but I must do my bit flawlessly consistently.  I have realised, at a deep level, that consistency is the number one goal, not chasing money.  Until I am consistent I will not make money consistently and without this I can't expect to make trading my new career.

I've checked the currency pairs I trade (9 of them) this evening and amazingly most of them are now trending well - the dollar is clearly weakening as everything else is going up.  The Euro has been incredible since its low point on the 10th of Jan with only 3 down days, it seems to be emerging as my favourite currency pair with the dollar to trade.

New dawn tomorrow I hope...