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Tuesday 1 February 2011

Riding the Forex wave

Bad Assed Trader:  Increasingly I see the movement of the currency pairs I trade as like waves on the sea.  You can't make a wave happen.  If you think a ripple is a wave and stick your surfboard on it all you'll get is a mouthful of salt water.  If you see a huge wave towering over you it's probably too late to attempt to surf it - you've missed the wave so sit it out.  Otherwise you will just get crushed under the wave, it's too high for you to ride it now.

The same thing happens with trades.  So many times now I've looked back on my trades and thought yup, that was only a ripple, it was going nowhere, I tried to "make" that trade.  They need momentum, I'm still learning to spot the signs that momentum is building but I think I am gradually improving on that front.

Thankfully I don't make the tidal wave mistake so much - it's a common mistake for amateurs seeing the big moves to jump in too late, I pretty consistently have conquered that one.

So how am I doing with the 30 perfect trades? Well I got to number 20 on my fifth attempt and reviewed those with my coach.  The ripple problem was my biggest issue and so I'm looking now for more definitive signs of movement.  I'm also not trading the "Swissy" (Swiss franc: USD CHF) anymore as I lost 4 out of 4 of those trades - that currency pair just doesn't resonate for me.

Since then I've taken 6 trades, 3 on the Euro (EUR USD) and 3 on Euro yen (EUR JPY). The Euro ones all went my way and hit my target, so did one of the Euro yens.  The other two didn't - one because news on lower than expected Swiss retail sales affected the Euro negatively and the other because I didn't strictly follow my rules and entered before I should have.

So I'm now on my sixth attempt to do 30 perfect trades, starting tomorrow.  When I say perfect trades, I have to spot and manage them perfectly.  Some of them will not bring home the bacon but that's ok, it's the price you pay for trading, but I must do my bit flawlessly consistently.  I have realised, at a deep level, that consistency is the number one goal, not chasing money.  Until I am consistent I will not make money consistently and without this I can't expect to make trading my new career.

I've checked the currency pairs I trade (9 of them) this evening and amazingly most of them are now trending well - the dollar is clearly weakening as everything else is going up.  The Euro has been incredible since its low point on the 10th of Jan with only 3 down days, it seems to be emerging as my favourite currency pair with the dollar to trade.

New dawn tomorrow I hope...

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