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Monday 7 March 2011

Now is this Luck?

Bad Assed Trader:  This evening I blog from my trading desk in Watford.  Yes, I know it doesn't carry the same panache as the south of France, but hey the sun has been shining all day and spring seems to be on its way.

Perhaps you detect a note of cheerful optimism in my blog?  Indeed, ever the One With Hope I am again believing that I am turning the corner on my trading performance.  Faceless Bureaucrat WILL become a Bad Assed Trader and this morning brought more evidence to support my hopes and dreams.

Sometimes when I write this blog I get flashbacks of Sex and the City and the sort of little stories Carrie recounts as she takes us through the whirlwind of posh frocks, wild sex and designer lunches with the girls (but not all, I think, at the same time) that seems to be her life.  Then I remember that I am but a simple Faceless Bureaucrat trying to become a Bad Assed Trader sitting in front of my laptop blogging about currency pairs, moving averages, price action and redundancy notices.  And then it seems the distance between Watford and New York has never been greater.

One day maybe I'll be blogging about posh frocks and designer lunches.  I'll leave the rest to someone better qualified - younger and more athletic even - than I.

In the meantime what happened this morning?  Well!

I think I was in a fairly cool frame of mind and started off perhaps a little prematurely (when I look back at it) with a pivot trade long on the Euro (EUR USD).  It was chuntering along in my direction when those nasty Moodys downgraded poor old Greece from B1 to Ba1.  Now do I really give a monkey's about the difference between B1 to Ba1?  Do I buffalo!  The problem is that this little whisper of confidence depletion in Greece's rather dubious financial affairs sent the Euro tanking nearly 50 pips in 25 minutes and took my trade out for a loss of 1%.  For some reason I'd traded 50p a pip rather than 30p so this time I gave a tenner back to the market.

But, once the dust had settled on good old Greece the Euro started to pick up again and so did Bad Assed Trader.  As my coach Emmanuel tells me firmly and fairly "Get back on that bucking horse" and so I did.  The horse stopped bucking for a minute so I climbed on.  Another pivot long set up which also coincided with a sniper long set up with all the classic chart patterns of a nice big W and we were away. Just over an hour and a half later I closed that trade for a 33 pip move, 1.65% profit.  I had stuck with the 50p a pip risk size and so netted £16.50.

Not only that, but when Euro moves often Cable (the pound - GBP USD) likes to move too.  The same set up presented and within 2 hours I'd caught almost all of the entire morning's move,  full 50 pips  which earned me 2.5% or £25 in cash.  The pound didn't manage to get much higher and about an hour later turned on its heels and dropped like a stone, losing over 100 pips during the afternoon.  I saw it turn and toyed with the idea of taking it short but I don't trade against the trend, which is up, and I don't like to "over trade" - that's when you keep trading even after you've hit your target for the day.  My target was 2% and I had happened to make 3.15% (we have to deduct the first unfortunate trade of the day, thanks to Moodys and the Greeks) so I called it quits and allowed myself to enjoy the warm and unusual feeling of being a winner, all day.

The big question for Bad Assed Trader is, was this luck or skill?  I like to think it was skill, particularly the bit where I managed to wring a total of 4.15% from two trades running simultaneously and didn't get stressed in the process at all.  Looking back on the chart patterns I did the right thing in entering and managing the trades so perhaps I am learning after all.

Before I sign off for the day Faceless Bureaucrat has complained that she's not getting a look in these days and would like to mention a couple of things.  Firstly she's now had her official letter warning her of her post being deleted (as they so poetically put it) at the end of this month and her own ass being on the redundancy line (her words, not those of the Human Resources Department) once her 16 weeks' notice period has passed.  Secondly, she says she's had an unofficial offer of a six month secondment some distance from home which can serve as "back up" if she can't find anything closer to home.  Bad Assed Trader sums this whole situation up with one word.  Scored.

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