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Saturday 31 March 2012

Clawing my way back to profitability

Bad Assed Trader:  OK, so the end result for the month of March was....break even.  Well actually I was 0.1% up but hey, what's a tenner between friends?  This was at least net after my broker pocketed a good amount of rolling fees and spread - a win win for the broker me thinks.  I certainly earned a lot more for my broker than I did for myself.

Am I disheartened?  Not at all.  It was a better outcome than January and February so I'm moving in the right direction.  I've come to terms with the fact that I almost undoubtedly need to return to faceless bureaucracy (unless I can come up with a more fun income generator) at least temporarily to take some of the pressure off my trading and stop the depletion of my bank account whilst there's still enough present to do all the things I have already planned or committed to do. A new car might be required within the next year after all.

So my time is now split between continuing to analyse the charts and trade and cast my critical eyes over the opportunities starting to re-emerge in our good old NHS now that the big bad Health Bill has been passed.

But today I'm in Bad Assed Trader mode and happy to report that after another wonderful session with my most amazing coach Emmanuel I am now adjusting my schedule to relieve myself of some of the time I had set aside for back testing and historical analysis.  Emmanuel tells me that I'm beyond that stage with my strategy and that I'm also sufficiently experienced to be able to add another strategy to my portfolio.  I have decided on an intraday strategy which I used to trade a lot.  But still following Emmanuel's advice to only trade the "stupidly obvious" ones.
EUR JPY Short trade 28 March 2012
So just to share one of my better March trades, here's a short trade I took on EUR JPY following my usual strategy.  Entry shown by top pink arrow, exit by yellow arrow (in charts on left) and stop loss marked by red arrow.
As you can see, I entered when price broke through a support level I identified at 110.30.
On the daily chart (on the right) we had a double top pattern with the second top marked by a high testish doji bar (a bar which looks like a cross with a long stalk at the top) followed by a reversal (red) bar.  This gave me indication price would go further down.  There was also diversion on the MACD indicator on the daily chart.

On the 240 (four hourly) chart (bottom left) price had made a lower high (the second of the double top which showed on the daily chart) with a large high test bar giving indication that price was testing that high and rejecting it quite forcefully) and on the hourly chart (top left) price had peaked with train tracks (green bar and red bar together in parallel at the top) - another sign of a promised move down.

As you can see, I had to sit through a whole day of retracement after my entry, waiting for my analysis to be vindicated, but it was.  I set my target just above the previous two lows on the four hourly chart which occurred on 22 and 23 March and I was right to do so.  Price troughed at 108.74 and my target was at 108.85 - what with the broker's spread I just about got that trade through by a whisker.  Just as well as price shot up the next day.

And now April looms. I have a couple of holidays planned but will be trading my way through the first one and hopefully my performance will continue to improve.

Well it keeps me out of mischief....

2 comments:

  1. How's the self-coaching going? hopefully making some kind of positive impact on your mindset?

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  2. Hi Nelly, yes I believe it is. I think the key is becoming more self aware and therefore more in control. Although I had a bad couple of months in Jan/Feb I coached myself through it and out the other end and it seems to be true, what they say: What doesn't kill you makes you stronger!

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